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Why Do Some Wildfires Have Explosive Growth While Others Are Predictable?
Living here in California, I’ve seen enough wildfires to last a lifetime – scary stuff. The science of firefighting is key to defeating these monsters of disaster. Surely if we can put a man on the moon, win WWII, win the cold war and defeat international terrorism (the latter happens, it just takes a little extra time) then we should be able to fight against these intense wildfires that associate evil (incendiary) humans with Mother Nature. What if I told you that I suspect there are additional components to the fire science equations when it comes to the intensity of these types of wildfires? Let me explain and suggest that we fund additional research.
As an example, let me use the Blue Cut Wildfire in mid-August 2016 in San Bernardino County – The Los Angeles Time on August 18, 2016 had an interesting story on this titled; “‘We got our asses kicked,’ say firefighters as Blue Cut fire defies containment”, by Angel Jennings, Bettina Boxall and Paloma Esquivel noted that:
“All the ingredients were there. Dry heat, gusty winds in a mountain pass covered in dead grass and drought-shriveled chaparral. The Blue Cut fire was born.” It all lined up. Wind, fuel and topography,” said Capt. Howard Deets of the San Bernardino National Forest-based Mill Creek Gunnery Team. “When that happens, there’s nothing you can do about it. he. You could send him the world’s firefighting resources and it will continue. »
The fire captain suggests a perfect storm, but there may be more criteria involved. For example, we enter a full moon cycle, this alters the effects of gravity on the flames and the debris thrown into the air by the flames, allowing them to travel farther and thus, the fire can travel further rapidly. Also consider the Solar Flare activity.
Okay, consider this: we learned from SpaceWeather.com – that a “co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit the Earth’s magnetic field on August 19. CIRs are transition zones between the solar wind slow and fast Shock waves and density gradients within these regions often do a good job of causing auroras NOAA forecasters say there is a 40% chance of class geomagnetic storms G1 when the CIR arrives.
We know that these external forces will affect the characteristics of a wildfire in many ways, but to what extent we do not know, therefore we cannot guarantee that our Firestorm supercomputer algorithms are accurate. Until we know and quantify these additional components, our computer modeling cannot be considered accurate. Such research may also have drastic implications for hurricane and typhoon forecasts, which may also be research for another day with funding. We need to know.
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#Wildfires #Explosive #Growth #Predictable