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A Quick Horse Racing System For Place and Show Bets
Years ago, Dr. Z (Dr. William Ziemba), an expert in mathematics, showed that profits could be made by comparing a horse’s odds and, therefore, its chances of winning, placing or to show himself in the real place and gain. For example, if a horse was tied, using statistics, Dr. Z could predict the likelihood of the horse winning, placing, or appearing. If a horse was at 8-5 and he knew he had an 80% chance of showing and the show ticket would pay $3, it was a profitable bet.
Betting on a horse that pays $3 to show up and winning 8 out of 10 bets pays out $24 for every $20 invested, or a 20% profit. His methods are still used today, but because he published them in his highly successful book. You can always look at the catch-all and do the math if you want, but there are easier ways to spot potentially good bets instead and view pools.
Naturally, if you put in the time to learn the formulas and apply them, you’ll be rewarded accordingly, but if you just want a fun and easy way to take good bets on the racetrack, here’s what to look for.
Good place and show bets usually occur when one horse is considered a little better than the rest of the field and another horse is considered better than the rest of the field but not as good as the best horse . The horse with the big speed or class advantage will usually be the heavy favorite, often walking away with less than even money.
The odds might look like this in a field of five horses…
In most cases, this would not make a good situation for a place or show bet. The show place and money will generally be split evenly between the riders based on their odds. However, if the table looks like this…
It is possible that the crowd is so convinced that the second choice at 2-1 will place that they have paid a sum of money into the place pool on this horse and have in fact made a bet placed on the favorite a bet of value. Watch the difference between the odds of the second pick at 2-1 and his next closest competitor, the third pick at 5-1.
When I see odds like that, I usually look at the totals instead and show the pool. Let’s say the pool at the place looks like this…
Place pool Total $1,000
Obviously, even if the second choice has a lower placement probability than the best horse, he has more money to bet on him. This often makes the favorite a good place bet and the same situation can be found in the exposure pool. It’s usually the second pick that gets an abundance of money bet on it, but once in a while one of the other horses, the kind that’s often in the money but rarely wins, will take a big chunk of the pool. .
Although there is no guarantee that this situation will be profitable in the long term and to be more precise it would pay to do the math, for short term bets it does at least offer an advantage to the horse player at the search for value in hens. .
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