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Testing Your Baccarat and Craps System
Any Baccarat or Craps system should consist of two parts: a bet selection method and a money management system.
Bet selection is defined as the process of selecting the winning decision (player or banker) in baccarat or (pass or don’t pass) in craps. There are many methods favored by seasoned gamers. Some like to follow the shoe in baccarat or the roller in craps. By this we mean that the player bets the same as the previous decision. Another preferred method of choosing which side to bet on is the penultimate decision. Pattern recognition is of interest to many gamers when looking for convincing shapes. Sequence play has responded to many systems in the game of baccarat.
Baccarat seems to offer the most hope to mathematicians. Since the game is played from a shoe which is usually not reshuffled until a baccarat game is over. Math types declare that there is addiction in the game of baccarat. Dependency means that when the first half of the baccarat shoe is played, it is necessary to determine the composition of the second half of the baccarat shoe. Therefore, we should be able to develop some house edge in the second half of the shoe since we already know what cards were played in the first half of the shoe (of course, we should keep track of it somehow or another to find out). Card counting, pioneered and successfully used in blackjack, was attempted in baccarat. The result was slightly positive but very disappointing as the player advantage was very very low. My advice on card counting in baccarat; don’t waste your time, it won’t work.
Other methods of extracting “addiction” from baccarat gambling have been explored.
Dr. SH Johnson has performed extensive computer research using large volumes of live baccarat data. He studied thousands of recurring patterns in relation to the dominance of the shoe (banker or player) at the time the pattern occurred. He was able to extract a slightly lower edge than that created by card counting in blackjack. Dr. Johnson reports that the practical limitation of this baccarat strategy is the very rare occurrence of betting opportunities. It tested the casino’s patience when they put two-thirds of a shoe in before placing their advantage play. The game required very large stakes and a large bankroll to generate a modest profit. The good doctor concluded that the strategy was more of a moral victory than a practical solution to gaining an advantage at the game of baccarat.
Some players take a unique approach based on the continuity of numbers in a negative expectation game like baccarat or craps. The concept of continuity of numbers behind this approach turns out every time we analyze the data on the mainframe. That’s not to say the concept will give you the foolproof game system. Here is the basic idea. Let’s say we went to the casino with a group of researchers and recorded every roll of the dice at the craps table 24/7 for 6 months. That would amount to thousands of dice rolls. Just for discussion, let’s say 6 months of continuous recording is 650,000 roles or decisions. Now let’s say an individual researcher lives to be 102 years old and for 80 years of his life he went to the casino every day of his life. Every day he logged 10 minutes of craps rolls at the craps table (not even at the same table every day!). Let’s say for our little discussion, that the 80 years of 10 minutes a day produced the number of decisions, the same 650,000 as the group of 24/7 researchers in 6 months.
Let’s take both sets of data and enter it into our computer. The computer will analyze the data against the mathematical model of the game. We will analyze the distribution of the model, the occurrence of the numbers and all the percentages. We will calculate the advantage of the casino over the player (i.e. – pass the line 1.42%, not pass 1.40%, etc.). The computer runs for a few minutes and spits out the two reports; Report 1- the “24/7 data for 6 months” and Report 2- the “data 10 minutes a day for 80 years”. What do you think will be the difference? NOTHING!! That’s right, the stats and numbers will be the same.
Well, what can we learn from this? As gamblers, we only play one big game of craps and one big game of baccarat (if those are your games) in our lifetime. You form a continuity of numbers that over the lifetime of your game will always attempt to conform to the game morphology or mathematical distribution. At any time, various aspects (patterns and numbers) will deviate from their normal mathematical distribution in the game. For example, let’s say that in our lifetime we have played 1,000,000 hands of baccarat. We know this because we recorded each of these suckers on scorecards and entered them into our computer after each game session. [the pros call this procedure “cataloging their game”]
Each night after entering his data, the player launches his trusty computer analysis program. A report is derived; he discovers for example that the patterns of seven consecutive bank decisions are 6 standard deviations behind in “his game”. The pro player has a coveted strategy for playing the deviations in his game. He knows that the IS deviation will eventually return to the equipartition. IT ALWAYS DOES, finally! Don’t run to the casino yet. The big question is how long will the model be out before it starts to revert back to the game’s normal distribution model?
NO, I will not give you the answer. Something to think about, huh? It’s interesting, the player does not consider a game as a baccarat shoe or two hours of craps play but the entire continuity of all the decisions he played. FACT: It’s HIS game; the only game he can play. You could say that goes against the idea we often hear… “my system may not win in the long run, but I’ll only be playing a few hours a day, so that doesn’t matter.” not important”. In these negative expectation casino games, you cannot escape the continuity of numbers in the face of ever-increasing gambling exposure. Billion-dollar casinos are built on the impregnable morphology of these expectation games every year. negative (reserving the argument of addiction to baccarat and this strategy that you could develop!)
We suggest you start designing and testing your baccarat or craps system focusing on your bet selection methodology. By this I mean, when testing your strategy, use flat betting or neutral money management. A flat bet means the bet is the same amount on every baccarat hand or on every roll of the dice. You can’t beat a negative expectation game with money management. In the long run, your betting selection should produce more winning hands or rolls than losing ones. When the player accomplishes this, we say they have a positive expectation or player advantage over the casino. When the player has the advantage, almost all types of money management work. However, to repeat this one more time, if there is no player advantage on bet selection, no money management system, no matter how clever, will turn a negative expectation into a positive expectation. .
Can we still play even if we don’t have a positive advantage? YES! It’s called gambling. When you have a player advantage, it really isn’t gambling, is it? Most recreational players play without a player advantage. The system you play and the way you manage your money is essential if you want to have great winning sessions and not lose all your money every time you go to the casino. In fact, you could be a lifetime winner with no player advantage if you went to the casino table, got an incredible streak of luck (it happens) and pushed (progressed) your bets to the max. When you have $35,000 ahead, you quit and never play again! Congratulations, you just kicked the casino’s ass! This won’t happen with most of us. We will be back! We better develop a system that is advantaged or close to it and have a money management system that limits our exposure to only a small percentage of our bankroll.
Most professional players use a percentage money management system. These systems are based on extreme discipline and constant control of one’s bankroll. Only a predetermined percentage of each changing bankroll is wagered. Learn the game you’re playing, learn the system you’re playing, then learn discipline, then learn discipline, then learn discipline…yes, that’s so important. If you can’t learn to control your emotions, you self-destruct at the gambling table. If you can’t control your impulses and emotions, don’t waste your time gambling. You are embarking on a great challenge. Like anything else worthwhile, you have to pay your dues. Then and only then can you become one of the few real winners! Enjoy!
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